When the war on Iraq broke out, the main question that many were asking was not whether the Iraqi troops would prevail over the American army, but how long they would last.

The sudden collapse of the Republican Guards took the Arab world by surprise, and raised many questions: did Saddam betray Baghdad to the invaders in return for a safe passage for himself, his family and his entourage? Or were he and his staff killed in one of the air raids, which prompted his military commanders to negotiate surrender with the American-British forces? But if this were the case, then why is the command in Qatar distributing photos of 50 Iraqi leaders, seeking their arrest?

In any case, the fate of Saddam and his aides will not remain unknown for long. I believe that most Arab leaders are worried at the prospects of arresting him and putting him on trial. If the coming few weeks solve the mystery surrounding Saddam, this will not bring anything new to the situation Iraq and the Middle East have entered, nor will it change the facts that the war revealed, namely:

First: The keys of Baghdad were handed over to the invaders directly or through a third party. Many factors point to such a conclusion, including the disappearance of entire brigades of the Republican Guards after the fall of the airport, even as no Iraqi tank was visible on the streets of Baghdad. The Marines entered Baghdad in a relaxed manner, and the American media no longer regarded Saddam as a central target. Moreover, the surrender of entire Brigades in Kirkuk, Mosul and Tikrit can be understood in the case of Iraq, where a tyrant rules. The forces that fought in the south fought in defense of Iraq and not in defense of Saddam Hussein.

Second: The Iraqi people, of all ethnic and religious groups, did not support the dictator who oppressed them. They remained neutral in this war after they had lost the incentive to fight following two wars against Iran and Kuwait.

Third: The Americans and the British are yet to find the weapons of mass destruction. Also, members of the Baath Party remained at home and kept their personal weapons. All saw the military advisor to Saddam Hussein, Amer Al Saadi as he surrendered to the Americans.

In addition, it ids not easy to estimate the fallouts of the war on Iraq and the rest of the region, especially that the dust of the earthquake that it produced is yet to settle, and it seems that the occupation of Iraq is going to be an extended one. The Americans will accept nothing short of the emergence of a regime in Baghdad that is loyal to them, and the establishment of several military bases on Iraqi soil, plus dominating its oil wealth. The Americans also want to strike terror into the hearts of Arab leaders, which justifies Syria’s concerns as well as those of Iran.

It is perhaps useful to note that Baghdad fell long before April 9. It capitulated when everyone stood passively when Beirut fell 20 years earlier, in 1982. And since the Arabs failed to liberate the president of the Palestinian Authority, who remains under house arrest in Ramallah, I fear that Damascus and Tripoli may one day join the list of Arab capitals that were overrun by the invaders.